The Coup Belt: Can ECOWAS Still Hold West Africa Together?

A majority of current news coverage focuses on democratic backsliding in the West, with little attention given to what it looks like in the developing world. On the African continent, the future of democracy can be observed as a set of uncertain paths rather than a concrete backsliding trend. Yet, where elections appeared stable on the surface in 2025, democracy remains fragile, as military coups remain prevalent, threatening democratic regimes themselves.

A continuous series of coups and protests has strained the viability of West African democracies today. Since 2020, 75 per cent of African coups have occurred in West Africa or the Sahel, a region that serves as a transitional zone between the Sahara desert to the north and the savannas to the south. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been severely impacted by these coups, with setbacks to its mission to promote peace and democracy. ECOWAS has recently suffered the loss of three of its founding members—Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali—at the hands of military leaders who successfully overthrew their respective governments and even formed their own separate alliance. 

In late 2025, two member countries experienced coups: Benin and Guinea-Bissau. This severely undermined ECOWAS’s efforts to uphold its goal of cracking down on military rule and spreading democratic principles across West Africa. As the overarching purpose of regional groups is to ensure regional unity, ECOWAS’s role is central in preventing coups. Understanding how the regional bloc intervened serves as a performance evaluation of its effectiveness in controlling instability.

However, it is worth noting that instability occurs both regionally and domestically. The Sahel region, for instance, has extreme violence combined with weak governance, making ECOWAS’s reach limited. Despite Guinea-Bissau’s history of coups, ECOWAS’s efforts can still influence decision-making. Swiftly seizing power in Guinea-Bissau after a contested election result, General Horta Inta-A was named interim leader of a one-year transitional government, and the President, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, was arrested. Pressure from ECOWAS led the new government to organize elections, setting the date for December 6, 2026. This illustrates how the regional group can still have influence on domestic politics, even at the hands of military leaders. Ensuring that these elections are done democratically will be the ultimate task, the true test of effectiveness.

To holistically evaluate ECOWAS’s performance, the history of Guinea-Bissau’s military takeovers is relevant; indeed, coups date back to Guinea-Bissau’s independence from Portugal in 1974. The count is currently at nine attempted and successful coups. A history of instability, marked by weak institutions, growing authoritarian tactics, and human rights violations, allows for coups to “beget more coups”. This creates a continuous cycle of violence and power clashes, coming at the expense of democracy. ECOWAS’s task here is to undo years of instability, an additional strain on its commitment to peacekeeping.

Additionally, there are allegations that Guinea-Bissau’s coup was staged by President Embalo. The evidence for such a claim stems from his ability to leave the country quickly, a first for deposed leaders. With General Inta-A being Embalo’s former personal chief of staff, this relationship is too close to ignore. This leaves ECOWAS with a new puzzle: how to distinguish leaders using undemocratic means to stay in power from power-seizing coups. 

ECOWAS’s inability to follow through on investigating President Embalo’s involvement in staging the coup marks another dent to its legitimacy. As an influential regional entity, silence matters, indicating an evident lack of transparency or willingness to investigate these allegations. 

The case of Guinea-Bissau therefore poses two problems for ECOWAS: first, an undemocratic seizure of power through the interruption of elections; and second, a history of political instability that makes fundamental change more challenging. Given historical factors, the regional group must address coups and apply pressure to limit them, while simultaneously reasserting its regional legitimacy.

Turning to Benin, their unsuccessful coup offers a different case for ECOWAS’s regional efforts of unity, as external support, including regional intervention and backing from foreign governments, played a key role. They sent forces to oversee the constitutional order and decided they could not afford to let the coup unfold, a move that reinforced their standing in the region. Nigeria, a member of ECOWAS, sent warplanes and bombed military equipment in support of President Patrice Talon’s government.

With Nigeria, this joint support intervention is the strongest stance ECOWAS has taken against undemocratic power-taking in the region since 2017. It also reinforces the group’s position in West Africa and serves as a warning to any future planned coups: they will be shut down. After ECOWAS faced widespread criticism for its inaction, Benin’s case paves the way to return to the spotlight, but this is only a first step. While democratic efforts may be limited in Guinea-Bissau due to systemic instability, Benin is a case that demonstrates the group’s ability to intervene in coups; it can be used as an example of how the prevention of coups is well within its capacity.

That being said, both coups imply a fracture in regional unity. Guinea-Bissau’s repeated pattern of coups illustrates ECOWAS’s lack of legitimacy due to its inefficient sanctions. Benin’s failed coup demonstrates the norm of how the regional group should respond, so Guinea-Bissau should be the true test of effectiveness. Pressure has been successful to some extent, as seen in General Inta-A’s release of the protesters detained following ECOWAS’s push. Steps have also been taken to bring the country into a “transition[al]” period, an encouragement that some improvement is observed.

As ECOWAS faces new challenges, it must respond to maintain its legitimacy, prevent future instability, and strengthen regional unity. Any source of stability cannot be taken for granted. As a regional group, ECOWAS’s position is pivotal for any hopes of democratizing and preventing democratic backsliding, setting the bar high for the remainder of 2026.

Edited by Maisie Minnick

Featured Image: Photo by the African Union is licensed under CC0 1.0.